Back when we first started this project, I hoped to do a series of posts about why I didn't think the Internet was capable of persuading voters. At the time, I was three weeks removed from one of my program's core courses, Media Theory and Effects, which that semester was taught by a man who was most decidedly among the limited-effects academics, those who don't like to blame the media for everything that goes wrong in human society. I tried, and apparently failed miserably, to condense five months of class into blog entries explaining the background that would eventually lead to my all-encompassing argument that the Internet, like most other forms of media, was not capable on its own of persuading voters. I let the project drop when I couldn't figure out how best to write it clearly, and when I realized the amount of energy it would take wasn't worth the four or five visitors I was averaging a week.
And why do I bring this up? Because the next post, had I not given up the topic, would have been on mitigating factors, those pesky little things that keep TV campaign ads or stump speeches from convincing us to back candidates. One of the most important mitigating factors of all, when it comes to the effects of media on voter behavior, turns out to be "influentials," or, as they used to call them back in the 1940s, opinion leaders. Which just happens to have been part of this week's class discussion.
So now I'm going to (briefly!) try this again. Today, a short background of opinion-leader research, and tomorrow the specifics of why this week's class speaker got the details a little bit off.
In short, digestible bits, here's how opinion leaders came to be studied:
In the late 1940s, a bunch of guys from Columbia wrote "The People's Choice" and a few other pieces in which they attempt to examine the role of the media in elections. Remember, this is coming right around World War II, which saw remarkably effective use of propaganda on the American population, and people were starting to be a little bit freaked about what all that new media watching was doing to their kids.
The Columbia folks basically went at the study questioning most people's fears of media as a hypodermic needle, which sent messages essentially into the brains of a comatose audience. Yeah, I'd be scared, too.
What they found instead, though, was a two-step flow of information, from the message creators to the opinion leaders, and then finally to the mass audience. Sound familiar?
A caveat: There were a lot of problems with the original study, which took place during the 1940 campaign cycle, and dozens of researchers since then have argued its merits, including the original authors who a few years later developed a second study. I'm not even saying whether I agree with the study, I'm just bringing all this up because we read/talked about it for class this week and I like taking an opposite point of view.